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JJJ MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW!
Monday, 4 Nov 2024
2024 brings us the 164th edition of the Melbourne Cup, which will be run on Tuesday 5th November at Flemington Racecourse.
**HERE ARE SOME OF THE KEY FACTS!**
* It has been run and won every year since 1861 (except for an intermission between World War I and World War II)
* Barrier 11 has been the most successful barrier, producing 8 winners. Barrier 5 is a narrow runner up having produced 7 winners of the race. In 2024, equal race favourite Vauban will jump from barrier 11 and $101 hope Trust In You comes out of barrier 5.
* 4yo's (46) and 5yo's (44) have won 90 of the 163 races.
* Males (Entires and geldings) have dominated the race, winning 146 of the 163 Cups run. 14 Melbourne Cups have been won by mares, with 3 of those being Makybe Diva. 3 Fillies won earlier editions.
The best lead ups for the Melbourne Cup :
* 6 of the past 23 winners have come through the Cox Plate and 6 have also come via the Caulfield Cup.
(Kovalica is the only runner in this year's Melbourne Cup, to have raced in the Cox Plate, while Buckaroo 2nd, Circle Of Fire 10th, Warp Speed 13th, Land Legend 3rd, Knight's Choice 14th, Zardozi 4th, Valiant King 9th and Fancy Man 6th all come out of the Caulfield Cup.)
* The best Northern Hemisphere lead up has been the Group 1 Irish St Leger, held over 2816m, this year won by Kyprios. Vauban ran 2nd and takes his place in this year's Cup.
**MY THOUGHTS ON THE 2024 MELBOURNE CUP**
The first thing I notice about this year's Cup, is the compressed weight scale - only 5.5kgs separates the top weight and bottom weight in this year's edition, which would indicate the horses at the top of the weight scale are advantaged.
The other key here is the lack of overall speed, predicted by the experts. I expect 13 JUST FINE to lead, with stablemate 11 KNIGHT'S CHOICE to push forward from that middle gate. Riders drawn wide will need to make a decision and I would suggest rolling forward makes more sense then handing up and potentially getting planted wide and at the rear anyways. Hopefully this generates enough tempo to turn it into a real staying test.
I backed 1 VAUBAN last year and he came into the race 90 days between runs, melted in the mountingyard, found himself on speed and faded out of the race early into the straight. I have really liked what he has done this time around, coming into the race with a stack more miles in the legs and some very good performances. He has raced once monthly since May, is only 50 days between runs this time and is coming off a Group 1 2nd to classy stayer Kyprios in the Group 1 St Leger over 2816m. From the draw I can see him parking in the front 4-6 horses and Willie Buick is 3 starts for a win and two second placings aboard the horse. I have to put his stablemate 9 ABSURDE into the numbers off the back of a strong performance last year, and he has carried 75.5,68,61 and 61 in his last 4 races. He plummets to 52.5kgs here and has a lovely gate with Kerrin McEvoy aboard.
13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR did what many can't do when winning the Geelong Cup - circling a staying field and winning while putting lengths on the field over the line. If you go back and watch the way he closed off in the September Stakes, he looked like he would absolutely eat up 3200m and sustain a good gallop late. He has had a few veterinary clouds over the past week, but if we follow the media, every horse here has. Drawn well, Willo on, he will be strong late.
The legendary Bart Cummings used to prepare his Cup horses with a minimum of 10,000 raceday metres - He knew what he was doing having won 12 Cups! It is interesting to see his grandson James Cummings race 14 ZARDOZI on Saturday in a mile race (She was very good late) taking her tally to 11,400m. I'm not sure she is good enough on a dry track, but she loves Flemington and I believe can run 2 miles.
The other local hopes I have eyes on are the Maher pair 3 CIRCLE OF FIRE and 2 BUCKAROO - But I am a punter who takes barriers seriously, and while I think they can win, they need a miracle from out there (21 and 24). If I could pick two jockeys in the race that could pull something like that off, bingo, M Zahra and J Moreira.
SELECTIONS
1 VAUBAN $7/2.50 1x4 (more the place)
9 ABSURDE $10
14 ZARDOZI $11
13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR $8.50
FIRST 4
1,2,9,13
1,2,9,13,14
1,2,3,5,8,9,13,14
1,2,3,5,8,9,13,14
GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY THE RACE!!
You will find Jared's selections for the Flemington and Randwick meetings held tomorrow on our website before 9am.
**HERE ARE SOME OF THE KEY FACTS!**
* It has been run and won every year since 1861 (except for an intermission between World War I and World War II)
* Barrier 11 has been the most successful barrier, producing 8 winners. Barrier 5 is a narrow runner up having produced 7 winners of the race. In 2024, equal race favourite Vauban will jump from barrier 11 and $101 hope Trust In You comes out of barrier 5.
* 4yo's (46) and 5yo's (44) have won 90 of the 163 races.
* Males (Entires and geldings) have dominated the race, winning 146 of the 163 Cups run. 14 Melbourne Cups have been won by mares, with 3 of those being Makybe Diva. 3 Fillies won earlier editions.
The best lead ups for the Melbourne Cup :
* 6 of the past 23 winners have come through the Cox Plate and 6 have also come via the Caulfield Cup.
(Kovalica is the only runner in this year's Melbourne Cup, to have raced in the Cox Plate, while Buckaroo 2nd, Circle Of Fire 10th, Warp Speed 13th, Land Legend 3rd, Knight's Choice 14th, Zardozi 4th, Valiant King 9th and Fancy Man 6th all come out of the Caulfield Cup.)
* The best Northern Hemisphere lead up has been the Group 1 Irish St Leger, held over 2816m, this year won by Kyprios. Vauban ran 2nd and takes his place in this year's Cup.
**MY THOUGHTS ON THE 2024 MELBOURNE CUP**
The first thing I notice about this year's Cup, is the compressed weight scale - only 5.5kgs separates the top weight and bottom weight in this year's edition, which would indicate the horses at the top of the weight scale are advantaged.
The other key here is the lack of overall speed, predicted by the experts. I expect 13 JUST FINE to lead, with stablemate 11 KNIGHT'S CHOICE to push forward from that middle gate. Riders drawn wide will need to make a decision and I would suggest rolling forward makes more sense then handing up and potentially getting planted wide and at the rear anyways. Hopefully this generates enough tempo to turn it into a real staying test.
I backed 1 VAUBAN last year and he came into the race 90 days between runs, melted in the mountingyard, found himself on speed and faded out of the race early into the straight. I have really liked what he has done this time around, coming into the race with a stack more miles in the legs and some very good performances. He has raced once monthly since May, is only 50 days between runs this time and is coming off a Group 1 2nd to classy stayer Kyprios in the Group 1 St Leger over 2816m. From the draw I can see him parking in the front 4-6 horses and Willie Buick is 3 starts for a win and two second placings aboard the horse. I have to put his stablemate 9 ABSURDE into the numbers off the back of a strong performance last year, and he has carried 75.5,68,61 and 61 in his last 4 races. He plummets to 52.5kgs here and has a lovely gate with Kerrin McEvoy aboard.
13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR did what many can't do when winning the Geelong Cup - circling a staying field and winning while putting lengths on the field over the line. If you go back and watch the way he closed off in the September Stakes, he looked like he would absolutely eat up 3200m and sustain a good gallop late. He has had a few veterinary clouds over the past week, but if we follow the media, every horse here has. Drawn well, Willo on, he will be strong late.
The legendary Bart Cummings used to prepare his Cup horses with a minimum of 10,000 raceday metres - He knew what he was doing having won 12 Cups! It is interesting to see his grandson James Cummings race 14 ZARDOZI on Saturday in a mile race (She was very good late) taking her tally to 11,400m. I'm not sure she is good enough on a dry track, but she loves Flemington and I believe can run 2 miles.
The other local hopes I have eyes on are the Maher pair 3 CIRCLE OF FIRE and 2 BUCKAROO - But I am a punter who takes barriers seriously, and while I think they can win, they need a miracle from out there (21 and 24). If I could pick two jockeys in the race that could pull something like that off, bingo, M Zahra and J Moreira.
SELECTIONS
1 VAUBAN $7/2.50 1x4 (more the place)
9 ABSURDE $10
14 ZARDOZI $11
13 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR $8.50
FIRST 4
1,2,9,13
1,2,9,13,14
1,2,3,5,8,9,13,14
1,2,3,5,8,9,13,14
GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY THE RACE!!
You will find Jared's selections for the Flemington and Randwick meetings held tomorrow on our website before 9am.
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