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7 Stakes + Maybe Diva Stakes Day Preview!

Friday, 15 Sep 2023

7 Stakes + Maybe Diva Stakes Day Preview!
Spring is certainly in the air and this weekend marks one month until the 2023 $15 Million Tab Everest. There are still a couple of slots available so the Group 2 Shorts over 1100m will prove decisive for some! Will Lost And Running or Overpass return with a bang? There is also a strong meeting at Flemington highlighted by the WFA Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m.

RANDWICK

TRACK -
Good 4 and warm weather predicted so we will be racing on a firm surface. Rail is out +7m and with that combined with the firm track I expect it to suit on pace horses and horses sitting forward of midfield in run. Negative for backmarkers tomorrow. 

R1 - 1600m MIDWAY BM72

Open race. SATNESS was in career best form before finding the 1800m a bridge too far last start. Back to 1600m, 3 weeks between runs suits and with stable rider Brock Ryan aboard I expect a positive ride and him to position well in run. ELETTRICA won the above mentioned race and also drops back in trip, can position leaders back on the fence which is positive. She's proving to be hard to beat in these Midways and has lacked a touch of luck at times. MISS COUVER is a horse I am following and she has a stack of upside.

BACK - 9 SATNESS $10/3 E/W 1x3 
#'s - 9,1,14,2


R2 - 1000m TAB HIGHWAY C3

Cracking Highway here and track pattern may play a big part. I am finding it hard to split these 3. IRON WILL has been competitive including a win and 2nd in 4 Highways this preparation. He does drop back to 1000m here which can be a negative but he has the advantage of being rock hard fit, and rolling forward on a day expected to suit front runners. ONCE AGAIN MY GIRL has a huge wrap on her having won 2 races by a combined 7.6L before starting $3.70 against RED CARD on the feature day at Scone last year. She also rolls forward, but how will she handle travelling to Sydney and not racing at home? SALIRE when fresh, is dangerous. He will be at the rear of the field but is one of the more explosive country sprinters in town and Cameron will have had this race in the back of his mind for a while. One soft trial, watch for him to be flying late. 

BACK - 13 ONCE AGAIN MY GIRL $3.70
#'s - 13,5,6,2

R3 - 1600m BM88

GAN TEORAINN
has been good without being super in her two Australian starts over 1600m. What I like is she's drawn to get the run of the race if she jumps well and she is down in grade now when peaking fitness wise 3rd up. I think she would be even better suited at the 2000m, and one other knock I have is the firm track? Regardless, if she is on song, this is a winnable race. GLINT OF SILVER is one of mine, his racing pattern will suit today, but he is yet to prove he can run a strong 1600m and the last furlong from his last start effort did not suck anyone in.  STRAIT ACER is flying but he beat up a moderate Midway field last start, and while he can do it again, he's too short in the market for mine. 

BACK - 9 GAN TEORAINN $3.80

#'s - 9,4,10,3

R4 - 1400m BM78 

I loved the return of HOLYMANZ at Caulfield chasing Va Via over 1200m and he's had a tickover trial in between runs to prep him for the 1400m. The CS Hayes defeat to Elliptical reads well for this. Drawn a great gate with Collett steering.  ALTIVO is a proper galloper with 4 wins from 5 starts to his name. Has to carry the big weight but he trialled well behind Buenos Noches and Zapateo. Hard to back against but with the weight and only one trial to go off, ill wait for him 2nd up, but he can win. GRINGOTTS will improve 2nd up, and AUSBRED FLIRT goes into all exotics - she is well over the odds.

BACK - 4 HOLYMANZ $9.5/3 E/W 1x3

#'s - 4,1,6,8

R5 - 2000m GRP 3 SW+P KINGSTON TOWN STAKES 

MONTEFILIA raced 1600m 2nd up for the first time in her career since 2020 last start and found a race where the leaders were suited and no-one made ground. This is also her 1st preparation with Chris Waller who likes to take things patiently with horses targeting races later. 3rd up, out to the 2000m now, looks set to peak and she's the best horse in the race. The biggest challenge looks JUST FINE who will jump on the bunny and be hard to run down on a firm deck. The way she sprinted from in front fresh at the mile suggests the 2000m will be no concern at all. Very hard to beat. MAJOR BEELNAVAJO PEAK (prefers soft) best of the rest. 

BACK - 4 MONTEFILIA $4.80
#'s - 4,16,2,5

R6 - 1400m GRP 2 DARLEY TEA ROSE STAKES 3yo FILLIES

KIMOCHI
has savaged the line in both starts this preparation and from a similar draw looks to get a great run in transit and she seems to be crying out for the 1400m. She had the fastest L600 (33.78s) and L200m (11.31s) of the Furious Stakes. TUTTA LA VITA is the blowout for mine. She brings a different formline to the table having returned in the Up And Coming Stakes over 1300m and hasn't busted the legs in sprint races. 2nd up 1400m suits, hopefully they can run on as she will be in the running line. She looks a miler but they will go quick here. TIZ INVINCIBLE has had the draws, but done the job and she won't have any issues out in trip. TROPICAL SQUALL will be winning her share of races as a typical Gaibott galloper. She tick the1400m 1st up.

BACK - 3 KIMOCHI $4 WIN
            11 TUTTA LA VITA $6 PLC
#'s - 3,11,1,8

R7 - 1600m WFA 7 STAKES 

Kerry Parker has done a sensational job with THINK IT OVER nursing him back after a tendon injury and he is having a typical preparation where he is competitive but improves each start. 3rd up, barrier 2, Nash should position front half of the field and get run of the race. FANGIRL will relish the firm track, improve fitness wise 2nd up. How far back will she get from the draw? You can't give these gallopers too much start. ZAAKI put in his best career performance for some time fresh, and that race wasn't initially in the planning, so you can expect him to thrive 2nd up. Great race. 

BACK - 1 THINK IT OVER $5
TRIFECTA - 1,2,7,9

R8 - 1100m GRP 2 SHORTS

LOST AND RUNNING is yet to secure an Everest slot so you can expect some sort of intent here fresh, You can't prepare for a grand final if you haven't qualified yet. He is trialling super, didn't see a dry deck last preparation and is a 5x winner on a firm track. The draw is good for him here being a galloper who likes running room and I can't see them going back. If there is any on pace bias it will be hard to pass the straight bat option of OVERPASS who will lead on the fence from barrier 1. Another on trial for an Everest slot. IN SECRET looked in need of the run fresh, and almost pinched the Concorde. She has a good 2nd up record and will be in the finish.

BACK - 3 LOST AND RUNNING $13/3.50 E/W 1x3

TRIFECTA - 2,3,4,5

R9 - 1200m GRP 2 BOBBIE LEWIS 4YO+

POLITICAL DEBATE interests me at a price here 3rd up and out the 1600m with no weight. Chris Waller has 6 runners in the field and the booking of Mcevoy here suggests he is the stables #1 seed. He has jumped well this preparation and from the draw here, should position midfield at worst. Won 3rd up last prep, peaking, each way price. CONVERGE is the highest rated runner in the field and this is the weakest assignment he has had for some time. 0.8L off Think About It fresh last prep, reads well. BARBIE'S FOX is flying this preparation and has to be considered for all exotics.

BACK - 17 POLITICAL DEBATE $19/4.8 E/W 1x3
#'s -
17,1,10,11


R10 - 1200m BM88 

I can see KAYOBI carting across into the running line 3rd pair back and sitting on the back of a pretty rock solid tempo set by KOTE and KIBOU. He is trialling very well and carries an excellent fresh record so at the price I am leaning with him on a 1x3 basis. Pending track pattern the two leaders mentioned above will get every chance and look hard enough to beat. VIENNA PRINCESS is a stakes winner and can run well off a freshen. 

BACK - 9 KAYOBI $11/3.20 E/W 1x3
#'s - 9,1,6,10



FLEMINGTON - SELECTIONS

Track
- Good 4 with good weather predicted up until and on raceday. Rail is true and I expect this track to play fair across the board. Every horse to get their opportunity.

R1 - 2 CAUSE FOR CONCERN $5.50/2.15 1x3

Returning off a freshen up and carries residual fitness from an excellent last campaign. Proven down the straight, loves Flemington, suited by the firm deck and has options from the draw.  

R2 - 2 INTERPRETATION $4.80

Confident he is going well this preparation and seems to have gotten to this stage of the preparation without any faults. 3rd up after two Moonee Valley lead ups over 16 and 2000m has him primed for the 2500m 3rd up. Zahra remains aboard and the stable are bullish he is in the best order he's been in for some time. Expect him to be strong late. 


R3 - 2 ANTINO $2.30 

You don't win 8 from your first 9 races without being a Group horse and he's found a very suitable race to kick off the campaign in here. First go the Melbourne way of racing and having had just the one soft public trial is the concern, but he's drawn well, should box seat and he's got the clear most upside of any runner in the field. Jimmy Orman is the only rider who whose been aboard on raceday and he travels down for the ride. Not overly confident with the set up, but couldn't tip anything to beat him.  

R4 - 3 KING'S GAMBIT $3.50

I am a trial perv and I love that the Snowdens trialled him in elite company this time around and he looks to have come on from his Golden Slipper preparation. He won his debut in Victoria by 5L and only top class 2yo's were able to get the better of him last time in work. Drawn a great gate, Blake Shinn goes aboard and I expect him to have a breakthrough preparation this time in work.
BARBER is over the odds at $13/3.60 and should run well, with the stable having been patient with his starting point, considering he is building a pattern where his best run is the first of the campaign. 

R5 - 15 LEGACIES $2.10 

Excellent return beaten only by a smart one in Veight and will only improve out to 1400m 2nd up. Last campaign she improved out of sight 2nd up so you can expect the same this time around. Drawn ideally to roll forward and box seat, building momentum after the turn. Kah suits this horse.  

R6 - 15 ESTRIELLA $6/2.25 1x3

Big fan of this filly and the way she races and I like the month between runs here and back to 1100m. Only beaten by Caballus a neck on the day he peaked this campaign before again finding one better out to the 1200m. Can see a few overdoing it here with pace drawn inside and outside she should find cover in midfield and get her chance late. More the place in a great race. 

R7 - 1 MR BRIGHTSIDE $1.80

It's impossible to fault his form for quite some time now and he is a 9 x mile winner from 13 attempts. Included in those races is 2 Group 1 Doncaster Mile's and an All Star Mile win at Moonee Valley. What I'm saying is he's flying and suited out to the mile here 3rd up. Alligator Blood is the obvious danger and at the odds looks the bet, but the Flemington straight is unforgiving when you have a horse like MB flying at the 200.


R8 - 1 AMELIA'S JEWEL $1.80

The WA superstar kicks off her Spring Melbourne campaign here and will do it from barrier 15. She's come over here to target some key races and if she's going to be competitive in any of those she needs to be winning this. Lack of pace in the race is the concern as she will be running on from the rear, but she has good change up speed, has overcome slow tempos in the past, has a gun rider aboard, and is the best horse in the race. 

R9 - 1 KING OF SPARTA $6/1.95 1x3

Has the form on the board to be winning a race like this and he was pushed to win his recent trial suggesting this is a target race fresh they don't want to be just running well in, but winning the race. Plenty of speed in the race, should allow Shinn to get comfortable in transit and push the button when ready. Convinced a few of these wont see out the 1200m, no concerns for this bloke.

R10 - 4 SIBAAQ $8.5/2.6 1x3

Has had good support in both runs this campaign and today looks to suit 3rd up and out to 1700m. Drawn a great alley to sit with cover in run and the long Flemington straight will give Damian the opportunity to wind him through the gears and get a good opportunity to hit top flight and run well at good odds. 

BEST BETS 

SYD - R6 #3 Kimochi $4
MEL - R8 #1 Amelia's Jewel $1.80

JJJ BEST BETS FOR TODAY 

RANDWICK
R4 - 4 Holymanz $5/2 E/W 1x3          
R5 - 4 Montefilia $4.8 

R6 - 3 Kimochi $4      BEST BET SYD
R8 - 3 Lost And Running $13/3.2 E/W 1x3

FLEMINGTON

R4 - 3 King's Gambit $3.6
R5 - 15 Legacies $2.10 
R8 - 1 Amelia's Jewel $1.80  BEST BET MEL

NEWCASTLE

R2 - 6 My Eloise $2.15 
R6 - 9 Starry Jack $9/3 1x3

TODAYS MULTI
SYD R7 #1 Think It Over Plc 1.95
x
MEL R5 #15 Legacies 2.1
x
MEL R8 #1 Amelia's Jewel 1.8

= 7.3 return

SYD QUADDIE
LEG 1 - 1,2,7,9
LEG 2 - 1,2,3,4,5,6
LEG 3 - 1,10,11,17
LEG 4 - 6,9,20

MEL QUADDIE
LEG 1 - 1,2,4
LEG 2 - 1
LEG 3 - 1,8,10
LEG 4 - 4,10,14,16

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