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JJJ ROSEHILL + FLEMINGTON PREVIEW 25/3
Thursday, 23 Mar 2023
All eyes on the Friday night rain this week for Tancred Stakes day at Rosehill. With 2-15mm predicted late Friday and 2-10mm predicted Saturday we could be on anything from a soft 5 to a heavy track. I've done my form for a soft track and with the rail out +5m - looks tough to make up ground. Rail at Flemington is out +8m with good weather predicted.
R1 - 1300m MIDWAY HANDICAP BM72 (1,2,7,3)
This is a great race to preview the day's track pattern with the big field and good pace expected. ASTERO looks suited stepping up to the 1300m 4th up after a strong finishing 2nd against the days pattern last start. Drawing inside is a big positive and he does handle wet going. TAMPERING lacks the fitness 1st up but what he doesn't is a positive racing style pushing forward and giving everything each start - that might be enough in a race like this over 1300m. MISS EINSTEIN for mine has always looked a wet tracker and on class she's in a Midway up to her eyeballs. Her return for a new stable 1st up was excellent and she will be running on strongly late.BET SUGGESTION - 1 ASTERO $4.20 Win
R2 - 1400m T L BAILLIEU HANDICAP GRP 3 2YO (9,1,3,2)
I was quite taken by the performance of MISS GHENT winning a country maiden against older horses by 3.5L on Black Opal day. That was 1200m fresh and she draws a superb spot here (4) to get a nice cart into the race. Being by Dundeel the step up to 1400m looks to suit. Big jump in grade and no rush to get the price as I feel the big syndicates and punters will come for a few others. AMUR finished 3.3L off Veight in the VRC Sires and drawing 1 at Rosehill has huge positives. THE YEARS was super in the Black Opal and hits his this trip at the right time 4th up.
BET SUGGESTION - 9 MISS GHENT $10/2.80 Each Way 1x3
R3 - 2000m TULLOCH STAKES GRP 2 3YO C+G (7,4,3,1)
AWESOME JOHN caught my eye last preparation in two runs on my home track Kembla Grange where he was very strong the entire straight from the rear over the mile trips. His form to my eye looks very good for a race like this and he's ready for 2000m 3rd up. If you can run on, I'm very keen, but keep an eye on the track bias early in the day. Stablemate STROKE OF LUCK is racing very consistently and was beaten only by Almania last start who has since run well again. Barrier 1 a slight concern if he jumps poorly. MAJOR BEEL will roll forward and may be ready fitness wise to run a strong 2000m from the front fourth up.
BET SUGGESTION - 7 AWESOME JOHN $4.50 Win
R4 - 2000m NEVILLE SELWOOD STAKES GRP 3 SW+P (2,1,6,5)
Great race with a number of value chances. NO COMPROMISE was sent out to Telegram followers early this week with the forecast of rain. Haven't received much just yet but tonight will tell the story of the track conditions. He was super fresh rattling home with the fastest L8,6,4,200 of the race chasing Banju with no weight. Pulled up lame and with a wound on his leg 2nd up. He also has a tendency to race flat after a good sprint fresh. 3rd up, soft record (20:4-4-5) track record (8:3-2-1) and I believe he's found a nice race here. HUETOR will peak fitness wise here after fading late at Flemington when asked to use gas early. He's a much better sit and sprint type but he won't want much rain. ZEYREK is absolutely flying the prep and SUNSHINE RISING is another who wouldn't shock.
BET SUGGESTION - 2 NO COMPROMISE $13/3.50 Each way 1x3
R5 - 1200m STAR KINGDOM STAKES GRP 3 (1,10,4,16)
Fast 1200m here! WAIHAHA FALLS will love the speed on being a slow starter but he trialled beautifully under a light hold and he is a much better horse with sting out so if we get the rain he is well placed. WEONA SMARTONE is another who won a trial leading in here and draws a nice midfield gate to roll forward. Last start she finished 1.1L 3rd behind Private Eye and Mazu. Fresh record (5:4-0-0-0) soft track record (6:4-0-1). GRAVINA looks huge odds being 3rd up with rain around. Very good form, barrier 19 a big concern.
BET SUGGESTION - 1 WEONA SMARTONE $5 Win/ Saver 10 WAIHAHA FALLS $7.50
R6 - 1500m EMANCIPATION STAKES GRP 2 SW+P F+M (4,6,7,12)
Like the way ATISHU has trialled leading into this 1st up with Nash Rawiller a strong booking. She's a mare by Savabeel who loves getting her toe into the ground and I have a feeling Waller has her primed here fresh. We can't ignore the imports and STATEMENT comes here off a 5.5L Grp 3 win in Ireland and drops significantly in weight. She might be too good for these but its hard to line up the form and travel. MIRRA VISION hits peak fitness and will push forward from the gate giving herself every chance. She's up to a race like this. MORE PROPHETS is worth a mention at $46/11 - her splits in the Coolmore were best of the race and if the rain doesn't come she's an each way chance despite the horror draw. She is sneaky flying.
BET SUGGESTION - 4 ATISHU $7.5/2.50 Each way 1x3
R7 - 2000m VINERY STUD STAKES GRP 1 SW 3YO FILLIES (8,3,1,7)
I may be reading it wrong here with most suggesting this is a two horse race but I feel Tyler got it wrong on CALL DI at Kembla taking off a mile from home on a track you don't need to, leaving her empty on fuel late. She's crying out for 2000m, gets Nash back aboard and can push forward to sit behind the speed here from the gate. PAVITRA won running away in this race at Kembla Grange and will roll forward again. Step out to 2000m suits 2rd up and shes very hard to beat. PROWESS is 6 wins from 8 starts and comes here off a Group 1 win against holder horses at WFA. Proper winner. Great gate. I feel its a 3 horse race and I can get the same price Call Di to place in comparison with the others who I mark very very close on ratings.
BET SUGGESTION - 8 CALL DI $14/3.30 Each way 1x3
R8 - 2400m TANCRED STAKES GRP 1 WFA (14,1,5,10)
MONTEFILIA has been good in both starts this prep and races on a 7 day back up here and onto potential wet ground which she likes. She has raced on the 7 day back up twice in her career - a Group 1 Champion Stakes win over 2000m and 2.7L off Duais in the ATC OAKS Group 1 over 2400m. Like her chances here down in the weights. 2021 Melbourne Cup winner GOLD TRIP is also 3rd up and he had excuses in the same race last week. He also likes wet ground and needs the 2400m+ here. ARAPAHO and EXPLOSIVE JACK look the chances at odds.
SUGGESTED BET - 14 MONTEFILIA Win $4.70
R9 - 1500m DONCASTER PRELUDE GRP 3 (4,5,12,18)
A place in the Doncaster Mile is on the line here generating a big field and ensuring barriers are a huge factor. I hope BANDERSNATCH with Avdulla steering is able to follow CROSS TALK over who is drawn just inside - potentially giving him run of the race leaders back. At worst I do feel he gets a good run in transit with slower horses inside. He was luckless at Rosehill but looked to have plenty to give, handles wet going and races well 3rd up. CROSS TALK is flying and it all depends on the pressure he gets to whether they can catch him. Leads, handles wet and runs 1500m right out. WATERFORD peaked on his run last start and will love getting onto a soft track. He has a horror draw to overcome but if they can run on he is a chance. Best roughie is CUBAN ROYALE.
BET SUGGESTION - 4 BANDERSNATCH $8/2.70 Each way 1x3
R10 - 1400m CLEANAWAY HANDICAP BM88 (11,7,19,6)
Letting a few of the imports run around today without me but I was really taken by the trial of SUBSTANTIAL for team Snowden. It was one of the quicker trials of the morning and gee he looked to move well and wasn't asked for any effort. Should position midfield which is a racing pattern he has suited during his career. TAMERLANE takes fitness from his 1st up run where he was bumped in the straight. Drawn a lovely gate and gets 2kg off thanks to Zac Lloyd's claim. FINEPOINT is suited to a race like this and is nominated for a harder race on the program. If she races here she is a definite chance 2nd up.
BET SUGGESTION - 11 SUBSTANTIAL $4 Win
FLEMINGTON - AUSTRALIAN CUP DAY SELECTIONS
Track - Soft 5 (Predicting S5 tomorrow) Rail +8m
R1 - 4 VERANSKOVA $2.70
Loves the Flemington straight and chased home Asfoora last time who has gone on to finish 3rd in the Oakleigh Plate and 4th in the Group 1 Galaxy at Rosehill last Saturday. Well weighted here and well drawn.
R2 - 2 HELL QUEEN $4.50
Dominant in a Bendigo maiden winning by 4.5L but the form prior in the Talindert Stakes behind Maharba is the good read here. Looks like a horse who will enjoy 1200m and drawn well for a straight race here.
R3 - 6 WORTHILY $11/3.20 1x3
Looks a great price for mine about a horse whose proven at the trip and drawn this ideal gate. I thought he was good last start over the mile and strong late behind Munhamek who has won again since. Out to 2000m appeals at the price and expecting him to be finishing strongly.
R4 - 1 KALLOS $5.50/2 1x3
Returned as a gelding and got the job done fresh. Drawn well for the Flemington straight and he can improve again 2nd up. Confidence boosting win can allow him to go on with things now.
R5 - 5 SOULCOMBE $4.40
Should relish the trip out to 2600m and he's needed the two fresh runs over shorter trips to get the fitness levels up. Flemington straight is ideal and gives him the chance to use his turn of foot and get over the top late. Expecting sharp improvement here.
R6 - 8 WHAT YOU NEED $2.60
Absolutely dominant 2nd up down the Flemington straight and he is deserved favourite. He looks a well built Colt on the way to bigger and better things and ill never jump off a horse that visually wins like that on the way up fitness wise with expected improvement still to come.
R7 - 1 CASCADIAN $3
Huge run in the All Star Mile last Saturday and is a genuine proven 7 day back up horse. 3rd up, 2000m, Moonee Valley to the Flemington straight, potential soft track. Keen.
R8 - 4 CARDINAL GEM $6/2.25 1x3
Thought he was OK 1st up but he is a noted improver with a run under the belt and his soft track record is very good. (7:2-2-1) in comparison to his rock hard statistics (7:0-0-1). Great each way play for mine.
R9 - 8 MARS MISSION $12/3.80 1x3
I think we can have a good each way value play in the get out with a Hawkes runner coming here off two Sydney runs in good company where he had excuses. He's a windup horse with a good turn of foot and drawn wide down the straight late in the day. 1x3.
BEST BETS
SYD - R10 #11 Substantial $4
MEL - R1 #4 Veranskova $2.70
$200 or 20u Strategy (Last week $292 return +9.2u)
ROSEHILL
R8 #14 Montefilia $4.70 $30 (3u)
R9 #4 Bandersnatch $2.70 Plc $2.70 $30 (3u)
R10 #11 Substantial $4 $30 (3u)
FLEMINGTON
R1 #4 Veranskova $2.70 $50 (5u)
R2 #2 Hell Queen $4.50 $20 (2u)
R7 #1 Cascadian $3 $30 (3u)
R10 #8 Mars Mission $12 $10 (1u)
DID YOU CATCH BRAVE STAR'S IMPRESSIVE WIN AT HONG KONG ON MARCH 8?
$340,000 Prize money from 7 starts and WE HAVE SHARES AVAILABLE IN HIS HALF SISTER WE BOUGHT FOR $50K!
Click here to watch Brave Star's win 8/3/23 Hong Kong!
Get in touch via email Admin@jjjracing.com.au for info on our Filly! Looking forward to being trackside with our owners and following her journey.
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!
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